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Arab climate change assessment report: Main report

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BACKGROUND

REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY IN THE ARAB REGION

The Arab region with its unique and complex geopolitical and socioeconomic setting is facing major challenges affecting the ability of Arab States1 to ensure the sustainable management of water resources and the delivery of water services for all. Freshwater scarcity, population growth, urbanization, conflict and changing migration patterns have increased pressures on human settlements and ecosystems and are impacting the health and welfare of women and men, children and the elderly, including vulnerable groups. This is despite regional, national and local efforts to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in an integrated and inclusive manner.

Climate change and climate variability are imposing additional pressures, with adverse impacts being felt largely on the quantity and quality of freshwater resources and the ability of the region to ensure food security, satisfy energy demand, sustain rural livelihoods, protect human health and preserve ecosystems. A higher frequency and intensity of floods, droughts and extreme weather events has also been experienced in many Arab States.

These disasters have affected the built environment, fragile land resources and natural ecosystems, which have aggravated the situation of already vulnerable communities, and resulted in significant economic losses, social dislocation, environmental degradation and displacement in several parts of the region.

Studies since the early 20th century have concluded that the climate is changing. Historical climate records show an increase in the global mean temperature over the last 165 years, with the year 2016 reported to be the hottest year on record by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which places the average temperature of the Earth today at 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels.2 The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)3 projects the global mean surface temperature by the end of the 21st century likely to increase as low as 1.1 °C under a moderate scenario or up to 4.8 °C under a high-end scenario relative to the 1986–2005 reference period.

In tandem, the IPCC report is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot temperature extremes over most land areas as global mean surface temperature increases. The report further elaborates on the breadth and intensity of socioeconomic and environmental risks attributable to climate change as the temperature increases above the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds relative to pre-industrial levels.

While these international assessments provide important insights into global processes and threats to global systems, it is crucial to understand what this means for the Arab region that is already hot, arid and water scarce. To do so means assessing these global temperature changes through a regional lens that characterizes regional specificities, conditions and constraints. Such efforts must be firmly grounded in science that can inform policy through dialogue between Arab States and among various stakeholder groups.

To better bridge the science–policy interface, such assessments should take into consideration the impact of climate change on water resources and what this means for the vulnerability of peoples and ecosystems throughout the region. Combining impact assessment projections with vulnerability assessment also furthers efforts to identify regional vulnerability hotspots and priorities for coordinated action on climate change adaptation in the Arab region.