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    World Meteorological Organization appreciates India's highly-accurate cyclone forecasting system

    Synopsis

    WMO has applauded the India Meteorological Department’s forecast and updates on super cyclone Amphan as "best practice" as the weather office made a series of predictions that correctly anticipated the path of the cyclone and the associated wind speed.

    Cyclone_nisarga_APAP
    The weather office has made “pinpoint” predictions about cyclones, said IMD’s director general M Mohapatra, who is also called India’s cyclone man.
    India’s cyclone forecasting has achieved a high degree of accuracy, which has minimised loss of life after ferocious storms, helped several countries such as Singapore and Bahrain and won accolades from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency.

    The WMO has applauded the India Meteorological Department’s forecast and updates on super cyclone Amphan as "best practice" as the weather office made a series of predictions that correctly anticipated the path of the cyclone and the associated wind speed.

    This marks a purple patch for the national forecaster. For the Nisagra cyclone, which recently hit Maharashtra, the IMD predicted its path even before the cyclone developed, beating global forecasters.

    The weather office has made “pinpoint” predictions about cyclones, said IMD’s director general M Mohapatra, who is also called India’s cyclone man. “The timely and accurate predictions have helped disaster management teams and authorities save hundreds of lives before any damage could be caused," Mohapatra told ET.

    The WMO agrees. "The accurate prediction of genesis, track, intensity, landfall point and time, as well as associated adverse weather like storm surge, rainfall wind, by IMD with lead period of more than three days, has immensely helped in their early response and actions," WMO secretary-general E Maneakova said in a letter to IMD.

    Since 2013, the IMD has predicted all cyclones correctly within a 45-kilometre error limit, and the death toll due to cyclones has never passed double digits in India or the surrounding regions.

    Terming the handling of the cyclone situation as an "excellent lesson", the WMO said the IMD was also to be commended for aiding India's neighbouring nations with accurate forecasts and preventing further loss of life and property.

    After cyclone Bhola in 1970 that claimed the lives of over half a million people in Bangladesh, the IMD, at the behest of the WMO, set up the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in New Delhi, which is dedicated towards tropical cyclones. The process was expedited after the cyclone in 1971 ravaged Odisha, killing over 10,000 people, with the RSMC starting its operations in 1973.

    In 1988, it started to aid the surrounding countries by disseminating any relevant information and raised alerts during extreme weather events.

    Today, IMD's predictions and updates are sent out to 13 countries to help them prepare for the damage. Bangladesh, Singapore, and Bahrain were outlined as the countries to benefit most from IMD's predictions, as per WMO.

    The UN in New York also kept a tab on the devastation brought on by the cyclone, with daily briefings inclusive of IMD's hourly bulletins that marked the progress of the cyclone. The IMD had received a similar positive message from the UN for its handling of the cyclone Fani in 2019.

    Over the years, a number of cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea have gradually gone up from their normal number of five. In 2019, the Indian subcontinent saw eight, while in 2018 we saw seven.

    A total of 98 lives were lost due cyclone Amphan, said West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee last week. The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) is still working in the state to restore normalcy, more than two weeks after the super cyclone hit the coast of Bengal.


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