WTO Cautions Deep Uncertainty in Trade Activity

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New York (ABC Live):While forecasting that growth in the volume of global merchandise trade is expected to rebound this year from its weak performance in 2016, the World Trade Organization (WTO) today cautioned that “deep uncertainty” about near-term economic and policy developments in some countries raise the risk that trade activity could be stifled.

The WTO, which often cooperates with the United Nations on trade matters, forecast that global trade will expand by 2.4 per cent in 2017, but only if the global economy recovers as expected and governments pursue the right policy mix. Owing to this uncertainty, this figure is placed within a range of 1.8 per cent to 3.6 per cent. In 2018, the WTO is forecasting trade growth between 2.1 per cent and four per cent.

The unpredictable direction of the global economy in the near term and the lack of clarity about government action on monetary, fiscal and trade policies raises the risk that trade activity will be stifled. A spike in inflation leading to higher interest rates, tighter fiscal policies and the imposition of measures to curtail trade could all undermine higher trade growth over the next two years, said the WTO.

“Weak international trade growth in the last few years largely reflects continuing weakness in the global economy,” said WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo on the launch of the organization’s 2017-2018 forecasts, adding that trade has the potential to strengthen global growth if the movement of goods and supply of services across borders remains largely unfettered.

However, if policymakers attempt to address job losses at home with severe restrictions on imports, trade cannot help boost growth and may even constitute a drag on the recovery, he continued.

‘We need to keep using trade to deliver more benefits to more people’ – WTO chief

Picking up that thread in a press conference earlier today in Geneva, he said that overall, while there are some reasons for cautious optimism, trade growth remains fragile and there are considerable risks to the downside. Much of the uncertainty around the outlook is of course political — and not only geopolitical. Part of this is driven by people’s concerns about the impact that trade can have.

The fact is that trade plays a very beneficial role in the economy overall. It is net positive. It drives growth, job creation and development, he said, but stressed: “Nevertheless, people’s concerns cannot be ignored. A net gain for the economy as a whole — or for other individuals — means little to someone who has lost their job. But in finding the right response we have to look at the whole picture.”

Mr. Azevêdo said that the fact is that the economy is changing fast – driven by technology and innovation. Eight in 10 manufacturing jobs are lost to innovative technologies and higher productivity. It is estimated that 65 per cent of children entering primary school today will end up working in types of jobs that don’t yet exist.

 

Recognizing that Africa is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, the World Meteorological Organization has launched the Training Programme on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in Agriculture to improve the capacity of national technical services in West African countries. The programme seeks to reduce the impacts of natural disasters and climate change on the agricultural sector and to support sustainable development.

“Climate change is threatening food security in many parts of the world,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “This new training program will make a significant contribution to strengthening the capacity of the technical services of West African countries to address the impacts and risks of climate change on agriculture through early warning systems and climate prediction.”

The training program is funded by the Italian government, represented at the inuagural ceremony at WMO by his Exellency Ambassador Maurizio Serra, Permanent Representative of Italy to the UN. The partners for the project are two WMO Regional Training Centers: the Institute of Biometeorology of the Italian National Research Council (CNR – IBIMET), represented by the Director Dr Antonio Raschi and, the AGRHYMET Regional Center, represented by Dr Moussa Waongo.

The project will be implemented in the 17 member states of CILSS/ECOWAS (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone,  Togo, Mauritania and Chad. With a budget of some €820 000, the  project will focus on training experts from national agriculture, agro-meteorological, hydrological and early warning services.

The project will organize training courses for technicians and experts of national services in order to develop effective climate services for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. The main objective of the training is to support the capacities of West Africa governments through the national technical services to supoort government actions in sustainable development and food security, in response to climate change, natural disasters and their associated risks.

The project will also consolidate a network among scientific and technical institutions in order to work on shared methodologies and to create an objective and harmonized base of information. The aim is to transfer and share the know-how, to expand cooperation in sensitive areas to the national and regional level and to promote exchanges and collaboration.

Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change impacts in the world because of its widespread poverty and its limited adaptation ability. Since the 1990s, the issue of natural disasters has gained international visibility. In addition, because much of West Africa’s growing population relies on rain-fed agriculture, the region is vulnerable to crises that can turn into humanitarian disasters, such as the one that hit East Africa in 2011 when a long period of extreme drought threatened the survival of millions of people.